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It’s not Calories-in-Calories-out. The exercise performed will result in the greatest weight loss if it causes significant changes in your resting metabolism. Remember, if you were to exercise 1 hour daily, that would leave 23 hours in your resting state. You want an exercise that will change your rate of fat burning during those 23 hours.
(in journal article below, “exEE” represents calories-out and “RQ” represents resting metabolic rate)
Metabolism. 2009 Sep;58(9):1320-8. Epub 2009 Jun 18.